Computational Investigation of Hand Foot Mouth Disease Dynamics with Fuzziness

The first major outbreak of the severely complicated hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), primarily caused by enterovirus 71, was reported in Taiwan in 1998. HFMD surveillance is needed to assess the spread of HFMD. The parameters we use in mathematical models are usually classical mathematical parameters, called crisp parameters, which are taken for granted. But any biological or physical phenomenon is best explained by uncertainty. To represent a realistic situation in any mathematical model, fuzzy parameters can be very useful. Many articles have been published on how to control and prevent HFMD from the perspective of public health and statistical modeling. However, few works use fuzzy theory in building models to simulate HFMD dynamics. In this context, we examined an HFMD model with fuzzy parameters. A Non Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) scheme is developed to solve the model. The developed technique retains essential properties such as positivity and dynamic consistency. Numerical simulations are presented to support the analytical results. The convergence and consistency of the proposed method are also discussed. The proposed method converges unconditionally while the many classical methods in the literature do not possess this property. In this regard, our proposed method can be considered as a reliable tool for studying the dynamics of HFMD.

Dynamical behaviours and stability analysis of a generalized fractional model with a real case study.

INTRODUCTION: Mathematical modelling is a rapidly expanding field that offers new and interesting opportunities for both mathematicians and biologists. Concerning COVID-19, this powerful tool may help humans to prevent the spread of this disease, which has affected the livelihood of all people badly. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this research is to explore an efficient mathematical model for the investigation of COVID-19 dynamics in a generalized fractional framework. METHODS: The new model in this paper is formulated in the Caputo sense, employs a nonlinear time-varying transmission rate, and consists of ten population classes including susceptible, infected, diagnosed, ailing, recognized, infected real, threatened, diagnosed recovered, healed, and extinct people. The existence of a unique solution is explored for the new model, and the associated dynamical behaviours are discussed in terms of equilibrium points, invariant region, local and global stability, and basic reproduction number. To implement the proposed model numerically, an efficient approximation scheme is employed by the combination of Laplace transform and a successive substitution approach; besides, the corresponding convergence analysis is also investigated. RESULTS: Numerical simulations are reported for various fractional orders, and simulation results are compared with a real case of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. By using these comparisons between the simulated and measured data, we find the best value of the fractional order with minimum absolute and relative errors. Also, the impact of different parameters on the spread of viral infection is analyzed and studied. CONCLUSION: According to the comparative results with real data, we justify the use of fractional concepts in the mathematical modelling, for the new non-integer formalism simulates the reality more precisely than the classical framework.

Numerical Investigation of Malaria Disease Dynamics in Fuzzy Environment

The application of fuzzy theory is vital in all scientific disciplines. The construction of mathematical models with fuzziness is little studied in the literature. With this in mind and for a better understanding of the disease, an SEIR model of malaria transmission with fuzziness is examined in this study by extending a classical model of malaria transmission. The parameters beta and delta, being function of the malaria virus load, are considered fuzzy numbers. Three steady states and the reproduction number of the model are analyzed in fuzzy senses. A numerical technique is developed in a fuzzy environment to solve the studied model, which retains essential properties such as positivity and dynamic consistency. Moreover, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the analytical results of the developed technique. Unlike most of the classical methods in the literature, the proposed approach converges unconditionally and can be considered a reliable tool for studying malaria disease dynamics.

Modeling of Computer Virus Propagation with Fuzzy Parameters

Typically, a computer has infectivity as soon as it is infected. It is a reality that no antivirus programming can identify and eliminate all kinds of viruses, suggesting that infections would persevere on the Internet. To understand the dynamics of the virus propagation in a better way, a computer virus spread model with fuzzy parameters is presented in this work. It is assumed that all infected computers do not have the same contribution to the virus transmission process and each computer has a different degree of infectivity, which depends on the quantity of virus. Considering this, the parameters beta and gamma being functions of the computer virus load, are considered fuzzy numbers. Using fuzzy theory helps us understand the spread of computer viruses more realistically as these parameters have fixed values in classical models. The essential features of the model, like reproduction number and equilibrium analysis, are discussed in fuzzy senses. Moreover, with fuzziness, two numerical methods, the forward Euler technique, and a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme, respectively, are developed and analyzed. In the evidence of the numerical simulations, the proposed NSFD method preserves the main features of the dynamic system. It can be considered a reliable tool to predict such types of solutions.

Optimization of Coronavirus Pandemic Model Through Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is demonstrated by machines, unlike the natural intelligence displayed by animals, including humans. Artificial intelligence research has been defined as the field of study of intelligent agents,which refers to any system that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of achieving its goals. The techniques of intelligent computing solve many applications of mathematical modeling. The researchworkwas designed via a particularmethod of artificial neural networks to solve the mathematical model of coronavirus. The representation of the mathematical model is made via systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. These differential equations are established by collecting the susceptible, the exposed, the symptomatic, super spreaders, infection with asymptomatic, hospitalized, recovery, and fatality classes. The generation of the coronavirus model's dataset is exploited by the strength of the explicit Runge Kutta method for different countries like India, Pakistan, Italy, and many more. The generated dataset is approximately used for training, validation, and testing processes for each cyclic update in Bayesian Regularization Backpropagation for the numerical treatment of the dynamics of the desired model. The performance and effectiveness of the designed methodology are checked through mean squared error, error histograms, numerical solutions, absolute error, and regression analysis. © 2023 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy hypersoft contra maps, homeomorphisms, and appli- cation in Covid-19 diagnosis using Hamming distance

This paper aims to introduce and study fuzzy hypersoft contra open, fuzzy hypersoft contra semi open, fuzzy hypersoft contra closed, and fuzzy hypersoft contra semi closed maps in fuzzy hypersoft topological spaces. Basic properties of fuzzy hypersoft contra open, contra semi open, contra closed and contra semi closed maps are analyzed with examples. Also, the relation between fuzzy hypersoft contra open maps, contra semi open maps, contra closed maps and contra semi closed maps is discussed. It is extended to fuzzy hypersoft contra homeomorphism, contra semi homeomorphism, contra C-homeomorphism and its related characteristics are also investigated. The fuzzy hypersoft set measure Hamming distance can be applied in real -world decision-making problems containing more uncertain and inadequate data. By applying Hamming distance between the Covid-19 patients and the other patients, a better decision can be taken in the Covid-19 diagnosis. This paper proposes a method to diagnose Covid-19 using Hamming distance of fuzzy hypersoft sets. The association between the patients and the symptoms is formulated as fuzzy hypersoft sets in which the Hamming distance measure is applied to decide on Covid-19 diagnosis.

COVID-19 classification using hybrid deep learning and standard feature extraction techniques

There is no doubt that COVID-19 disease rapidly spread all over the world, and effected the daily lives of all of the people. Nowadays, the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction is the most way used to detect COVID-19 infection. Due to time consumed in this method and material limitation in the hospitals, there is a need for developing a robust decision support system depending on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to recognize the infection at an early stage from a medical images. The main contribution in this research is to develop a robust hybrid feature extraction method for recognizing the COVID-19 infection. Firstly, we train the Alexnet on the images database and extract the first feature matrix. Then we used discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the second feature matrix from the same images. After that, the desired feature matrices were merged. Finally, support vector machine (SVM) was used to classify the images. Training, validating, and testing of the proposed method were performed. Experimental results gave (97.6%, 98.5%) average accuracy rate on both chest X-ray and computed tomography (CT) images databases. The proposed hybrid method outperform a lot of standard methods and deep learning neural networks like Alexnet, Googlenet and other related methods. © 2023 Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science. All rights reserved.

On the decomposition and analysis of novel simultaneous SEIQR epidemic model

In this manuscript, we are proposing a new kind of modified Susceptible Exposed Infected Quarantined Recovered model (SEIQR) with some assumed data. The novelty imposed here in the study is that we are studying simultaneously SIR, SEIR, SIQR, and SEQR pandemic models with the same data unchanged as the SEIQR model. We are taking this model a step ahead by using a non-helpful transition because it was mostly skipped in the literature. All sorts of features that are essential to study the models, such as basic reproduction number, stability analysis, and numerical simulations have been examined for this modified model with other models.

Comprehending the model of omicron variant using fractional derivatives

The world is grappled with an unprecedented challenges due to Corona virus. We are all battling this epidemic together, but we have not been able to defeat this epidemic yet. A new variant of this virus, named 'Omicron' is spreading these days. The fractional differential equations are providing us with better tools to study the mathematical model with memory effects. In this paper, we will consider an extended SER mathematical model with quarantined and vaccinated compartment to speculate the Omicron variant. This extended Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered SER model involves equations that associate with the group of individuals those are susceptible (S), exposed (E): this class includes the individuals who are infected but not yet infectious, infectious (W): this class includes the individuals who are infected but not yet Quarantined, quarantined (Q): this class includes those group of people who are infectious, confirmed and quarantined, recovered (R) this class includes the group of individuals who have recovered, and vaccinated (V): this class includes the group of individuals who have been vaccinated. The non-negativity and of the extended SER model is analysed, the equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number are also calculated. The proposed model is then extended to the mathematical model using AB derivative operator. Proof for the existence and the uniqueness for the solution of fractional mathematical model in sense of AB fractional derivative is detailed and a numerical method is detailed to obtain the numerical solutions. Further we have discussed the efficiency of the vaccine against the Omicron variant via graphical representation.

Numerical simulations on scale-free and random networks for the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Epidemiology is the study of how and why an infectious disease occurs in a group of peo-ple. Several epidemiological models have been developed to get information on the spread of a dis-ease in society. That information is used to plan strategies to prevent illness and manage patients. But, most of these models consider only random diffusion of the disease and hence ignore the num-ber of interactions among people. To take into account the interactions among individuals, the net-work approach is becoming increasingly popular. It is novel to consider the dynamics of infectious disease using various networks rather than classical differential equation models. In this paper, we numerically simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Recoverd (SIR) model on Barabasi-Albert network and Erd delta s-Re acute accent nyi network to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan so that we know the severity of the disease. We also show how a situation becomes alarming if hubs in a network get infected.(c) 2022 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Methods of Mathematical Modelling: Infectious Diseases

Methods of Mathematical Modeling: Infectious Diseases presents computational methods related to biological systems and their numerical treatment via mathematical tools and techniques. Edited by renowned experts in the field, Dr. Hari Mohan Srivastava, Dr. Dumitru Baleanu, and Dr. Harendra Singh, the book examines advanced numerical methods to provide global solutions for biological models. These results are important for medical professionals, biomedical engineers, mathematicians, scientists and researchers working on biological models with real-life applications. The authors deal with methods as well as applications, including stability analysis of biological models, bifurcation scenarios, chaotic dynamics, and non-linear differential equations arising in biology. The book focuses primarily on infectious disease modeling and computational modeling of other real-world medical issues, including COVID-19, smoking, cancer and diabetes. The book provides the solution of these models so as to provide actual remedies. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Caputo-Based Model for Increasing Strains of Coronavirus: Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Design

One of the most severe and troubling diseases these days is COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic's dangerous effects are extremely rapid, and infection normally results in death within a few weeks. As a consequence, it is important to delve deeper into the complexities of this elusive virus. In this study, we propose a Caputo-based model for increasing COVID-19 strains. The memory effect and hereditary properties of the fractional variant for the model enable us to fully comprehend the dynamics of the model's features. The existence of unique solution using the fixed-point theorem and Arzela-Ascoli principle as well as the stability analysis of the model by means of Ulam-Hyer stability (UHS) and generalized Ulam-Hyer stability (GUHS) have been discussed. Furthermore, the parameters of the model are estimated using 3 months data points chosen from Nigeria using the nonlinear least-squares technique. The best-suited parameters and the optimized Caputo fractional-order parameter a are obtained by running simulations for both models. The proposed model is shown to comprehend the dynamical behavior of the virus better than the integer-order version. In addition, to shed more light on the model's characteristics, various numerical simulations are performed using an efficient numerical scheme.

Monic Chebyshev pseudospectral differentiation matrices for higher-order IVPs and BVPs: applications to certain types of real-life problems

We introduce new differentiation matrices based on the pseudospectral collocation method. Monic Chebyshev polynomials (MCPs) were used as trial functions in differentiation matrices (D-matrices). Those matrices have been used to approximate the solutions of higher-order ordinary differential equations (H-ODEs). Two techniques will be used in this work. The first technique is a direct approximation of the H-ODE. While the second technique depends on transforming the H-ODE into a system of lower order ODEs. We discuss the error analysis of these D-matrices in-depth. Also, the approximation and truncation error convergence have been presented to improve the error analysis. Some numerical test functions and examples are illustrated to show the constructed D-matrices' efficiency and accuracy.

Stability Analysis of COVID-19 via a Fractional Order Mathematical Model

In this work, a four compartmental SEIR model is constructed for the transmission of the Novel Coronavirus infectious disease using Caputo fractional derivative. The disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are investigated with the stability analysis correspondingly. The solution at different fractional orders is obtained using the Laplace Adomian Decomposition method. Furthermore, the dynamics of the proposed fractional order model are interpreted graphically to observe the behaviour of the spread of disease by altering the values of initially exposed individuals and transmission rate. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Numerical Computational Heuristic Through Morlet Wavelet Neural Network for Solving the Dynamics of Nonlinear SITR COVID-19

The present investigations are associated with designing Morlet wavelet neural network (MWNN) for solving a class of susceptible, infected, treatment and recovered (SITR) fractal systems of COVID-19 propagation and control. The structure of an error function is accessible using the SITR differential form and its initial conditions. The optimization is performed using the MWNN together with the global as well as local search heuristics of genetic algorithm (GA) and active-set algorithm (ASA), i.e., MWNN-GA-ASA. The detail of each class of the SITR nonlinear COVID-19 system is also discussed. The obtained outcomes of the SITR system are compared with the Runge-Kutta results to check the perfection of the designed method. The statistical analysis is performed using different measures for 30 independent runs as well as 15 variables to authenticate the consistency of the proposed method. The plots of the absolute error, convergence analysis, histogram, performance measures, and boxplots are also provided to find the exactness, dependability and stability of the MWNN-GA-ASA.

Stochastic Epidemic Model of Covid-19 via the Reservoir-People Transmission Network

The novel Coronavirus COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. COVID-19 has rapidly spread among human populations and other mammals. The outbreak of COVID-19 has become a global challenge. Mathematical models of epidemiological systems enable studying and predicting the potential spread of disease. Modeling and predicting the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in near real-time is a scientific challenge, this requires a deep understanding of the dynamics of pandemics and the possibility that the diffusion process can be completely random. In this paper, we develop and analyze a model to simulate the Coronavirus transmission dynamics based on Reservoir-People transmission network.When faced with a potential outbreak, decision-makers need to be able to trust mathematical models for their decision-making processes. One of the most considerable characteristics of COVID-19 is its different behaviors in various countries and regions, or even in different individuals, which can be a sign of uncertain and accidental behavior in the disease outbreak. This trait reflects the existence of the capacity of transmitting perturbations across its domains. We construct a stochastic environment because of parameters random essence and introduce a stochastic version of theReservoir-Peoplemodel. Then we prove the uniqueness and existence of the solution on the stochastic model. Moreover, the equilibria of the system are considered. Also, we establish the extinction of the disease under some suitable conditions. Finally, some numerical simulation and comparison are carried out to validate the theoretical results and the possibility of comparability of the stochastic model with the deterministic model. © 2022 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.

Numerical analysis of Atangana-Baleanu fractional model to understand the propagation of a novel corona virus pandemic

In this manuscript, we formulated a new nonlinear SEIQR fractional order pandemic model for the Corona virus disease (COVID-19) with Atangana-Baleanu derivative. Two main equilibrium points F0∗,F1∗ of the proposed model are stated. Threshold parameter R0 for the model using next generation technique is computed to investigate the future dynamics of the disease. The existence and uniqueness of solution is proved using a fixed point theorem. For the numerical solution of fractional model, we implemented a newly proposed Toufik-Atangana numerical scheme to validate the importance of arbitrary order derivative ρ and our obtained theoretical results. It is worth mentioning that fractional order derivative provides much deeper information about the complex dynamics of Corona model. Results obtained through the proposed scheme are dynamically consistent and good in agreement with the analytical results. To draw our conclusions, we explore a complete quantitative analysis of the given model for different quarantine levels. It is claimed through numerical simulations that pandemic could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory quarantine measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effectiveness of quarantine policy on human population.

Fractional analysis of dynamical novel COVID-19 by semi-analytical technique

This study employs a semi-analytical approach, called Optimal Homotopy Asymptotic Method (OHAM), to analyze a coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model of fractional order. The proposed method employs Caputo's fractional derivatives and Reimann-Liouville fractional integral sense to solve the underlying model. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first application of an optimal homotopy asymptotic scheme for better estimation of the future dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our proposed fractional-order scheme for the parameterized model is based on the available number of infected cases from January 21 to January 28, 2020, in Wuhan City of China. For the considered real-time data, the basic reproduction number is R0 ≈ 2.48293 that is quite high. The proposed fractional-order scheme for solving the COVID-19 fractional-order model possesses some salient features like producing closed-form semi-analytical solutions, fast convergence and non-dependence on the discretization of the domain. Several graphical presentations have demonstrated the dynamical behaviors of subpopulations involved in the underlying fractional COVID-19 model. The successful application of the scheme presented in this work reveals new horizons of its application to several other fractional-order epidemiological models. © 2021 Tech Science Press. All rights reserved.

Mathematical analysis for the effect of voluntary vaccination on the propagation of Corona virus pandemic.

In this manuscript, a new nonlinear model for the rapidly spreading Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is developed. We incorporate an additional class of vaccinated humans which ascertains the impact of vaccination strategy for susceptible humans. A complete mathematical analysis of this model is conducted to predict the dynamics of Corona virus in the population. The analysis proves the effectiveness of vaccination strategy employed and helps public health services to control or to reduce the burden of corona virus pandemic. We first prove the existence and uniqueness and then boundedness and positivity of solutions. Threshold parameter for the vaccination model is computed analytically. Stability of the proposed model at fixed points is investigated analytically with the help of threshold parameter to examine epidemiological relevance of the pandemic. We apply LaSalle's invariance principle from the theory of Lyapunov function to prove the global stability of both the equilibria. Two well known numerical techniques namely Runge-Kutta method of order 4 (RK4), and the Non-Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) method are employed to solve the system of ODE's and to validate our obtained theoretical results. For different coverage levels of voluntary vaccination, we explored a complete quantitative analysis of the model. To draw our conclusions, the effect of proposed vaccination on threshold parameter is studied numerically. It is claimed that Corona virus disease could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory vaccination measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effect of vaccination strategy on a disease dynamics.

A new comparative study on the general fractional model of COVID-19 with isolation and quarantine effects

A generalized version of fractional models is introduced for the COVID-19 pandemic, including the effects of isolation and quarantine. First, the general structure of fractional derivatives and integrals is discussed;then the generalized fractional model is defined from which the stability results are derived. Meanwhile, a set of real clinical observations from China is considered to determine the parameters and compute the basic reproduction number, i.e., R0≈6.6361. Additionally, an efficient numerical technique is applied to simulate the new model and provide the associated numerical results. Based on these simulations, some figures and tables are presented, and the data of reported cases from China are compared with the numerical findings in both classical and fractional frameworks. Our comparative study indicates that a particular case of general fractional formula provides a better fit to the real data compared to the other classical and fractional models. There are also some other key parameters to be examined that show the health of society when they come to eliminate the disease.